基于长短期记忆神经网络模型的空气质量预测
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河北省科技支撑计划项目(17210104D, 18210109D); 河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(ZD2015099); 河北省高层次人才资助项目(A2016002015)


Air quality prediction based on neural network model of long short-term memory
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    摘要:

    随着城市化和工业化的快速发展,空气污染问题日益突出,空气质量预测显得尤为重要。当前一些有代表性的研究对空气质量进行实时监测和预报,例如周广强等采用数值预报的方法对中国东部地区的空气质量进行分析,但其实验结果表明该方法难以预测非常重的污染;SANKAR等使用多元线性回归对空气质量进行预测,但其实验结果表明线性模型预测精度低、效率慢;PREZ等使用统计方法对空气质量进行预测,实验结果证明统计方法的预测精度比较低;WANG等采用改进的BP神经网络建立了空气质量指数的预测模型,其实验验证了BP神经网络收敛速度慢、容易陷入局部最优解的问题;YANG等利用相邻网格的空气质量浓度效应,建立了基于随机森林的PM2.5浓度预测模型,通过实验过程证明网格划分程序削弱了后续空气质量分析的质量和效率。这些方法都难以从时间角度建模,其中预测精度低是比较重要的问题。因为预测精度低可能会导致空气质量预测结果出现较大的误差。针对空气质量研究中预测精度低的问题,提出了基于长短期记忆单元(long short-term memory,LSTM)的神经网络模型。该模型使用MAPE,RMSE,R,[WT]IA和MAE等指标来检测LSTM神经网络与对比模型的预测性能。由于Delhi和Houston是空气污染程度比较严重的城市,所以使用的实验数据集来自Delhi的Punjabi Bagh监测站2014—2016年的空气质量数据和Houston的Harris County监测站2010—2016年的空气质量数据。LSTM神经网络与多元线性回归和回归模型(SVR)的比较结果表明,LSTM神经网络适应多个变量或多输入的时间序列预测问题,LSTM神经网络具有预测精度高、速度快和较强的鲁棒性等优点。

    Abstract:

    With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the problem of air pollution has become increas-ingly prominent, and air quality prediction is particularly important. Some representative studies currently monitor and forecast air quality in real time. For example, ZHOU Guangqiang et al. Used numerical prediction to analyze air quality in eastern China. However, experimental results show that this method is difficult to predict and is very important. SANKAR et al. Used multiple linear regression to predict air quality, but the experimental results showed that the linear model had low prediction accuracy and slow efficiency;PREZ et al. Used statistical methods to predict air quality, and the experimental results proved the prediction accuracy of the statistical method relatively low; WANG et al. Used an improved BP neural network to establish a prediction model for the air quality index, and their experiments verified that the BP neural network has a slow convergence rate and is prone to fall into the local optimal solution problem; YANG et al. Air quality concentration effect, a PM2.5 concentration prediction model based on random forests was established, and the empirical process proved that the meshing program weakened the quality and efficiency of subsequent air quality analysis; these methods are difficult to model from a time perspective, and the prediction accuracy is low is a more important issue. Because low prediction accuracy may lead to large errors in air quality prediction results. 河北科技大学学报 2020年 第1期 张冬雯,等:基于长短期记忆神经网络模型的空气质量预测 In this paper, a neural network model based on long -term memory (LSTM) is proposed to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy in air quality research.MAPE, RMSE, R, IA and MAE were used to test the predictive performance of LSTM neural network and the comparison model.Since Delhi and Houston are cities with high levels of air pollution, the experimental data sets used in this paper were from the air quality data of Punjabi Bagh monitoring station in Delhi from 2014 to 2016 and the air quality data of Harris County monitoring station in Houston from 2010 to 2016.By comparing LSTM neural network with multiple linear regression and regression model (SVR), the experimental results show that LSTM neural network is suitable for time series prediction with multiple variables or multiple inputs LSTM neural network has the advantages of high prediction accuracy, high speed and strong robustness.

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张冬雯,赵 琪,许云峰,刘 滨.基于长短期记忆神经网络模型的空气质量预测[J].河北科技大学学报,2020,41(1):67-75

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  • 收稿日期:2019-12-10
  • 最后修改日期:2020-01-07
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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-03-17
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